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  in Business | Published 2010-02-20 01:57:46 | 259 Reads | Unrated


First half of 2009 by the international financial crisis, China's electronic information industry trend is clearly downward Recently, as the household appliances to the countryside, 3G construction, expansion of domestic demand show the effect of policies and industry of the positive changes in the growing and began to stabilize and to the good sign

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First half of 2009 by the international financial crisis, China's electronic information industry trend is clearly downward. Recently, as the household appliances to the countryside, 3G construction, expansion of domestic demand show the effect of policies and industry of the positive changes in the growing and began to stabilize and to the good sign. However, the decline in exports by a big margin, there is volatility in some industries and areas of repeated phenomenon, the basis for industry as a whole does not rebound strong, still need to pay close attention to the changing situation and t
o take positive measures to ensure the healthy development of the industry.

Operating characteristics of the economy

Production of a continuous recovery in product growth increased surface; economic efficiency continued to decline, decline gradually narrowing; export trend is clearly downward, the overall impact on the industry to further expand; show the effectiveness of policies, domestic market growth is more obvious; software business revenues are steady down, the tendency of a service.

(A) the production of a continuous recovery in product growth surface increased. Since March, the above scale industrial added value of electronic information manufacturing industry to gradually reverse the declining trend in growth of 6.5% in the month in June, an increase of more than in April, May were increased by 5.4, or 2.2 percent, the cumulative increase in the first 6 months of industrial values fell 0.6%. Gradual return to growth in some key products, in June, focusing on monitoring of 27 products, 11 product output shows positive growth in May more than two products. Program controlled switches which output increased 25.2%, reversing two months of negative growth in the previous situation; mobile phones declined by 2.9%, a decline of more than in April, May narrowed by 6.4 and 1.5 percentage points; micro computers, monitors grew 38.2%, 16.2 %, an increase of more than in May increased by 20.1, 11.4 percentage points; color TV up 3.8% over the May rate of increase fell 11.1 percentage points; integrated circuits, digital cameras continue to negative growth ( 13.5% and 14.1%), decrease respectively, compared with May to expand 2.5, 5 percentage points.

(B) the economic efficiency continued to decline, decline gradually narrowing. From January to May, more than the size of electronic information industry realized main business income 1.6853 trillion yuan, down 8.5%, decrease compared with January February narrowed a decrease of 7.5 percentage points; profit of 38.5 billion yuan, down 41%, narrower than the January February drop 44.7 percentage points. Communications equipment industry realized profits of 13.9 billion, an increase of 35.1% of e information 11 major industry profits are the only growth industries; electronic devices is the only loss (78 billion) industry, where integrated circuit industry, a loss of 19.4 billion, a loss of 11.9 billion electronic vacuum devices; computers, audio visual equipment, electronic components industry profit decreased 30%.

(Iii) export trend is clearly downward, the overall impact on the industry to expand. As the international market dried up, 1 June exports of electronic information products 188.9 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.9%, including electronic components, the device industry, exports decreased by 37.8%, 23.3%, raw materials for processing trade exports dropped by 36.3%, 22%, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other provinces and cities in nine coastal dropped 7% 36%. The decline in exports to the industry wide sales of the side effects become more prominent, the first 6 months of export delivery value of any decline in sales volume dropped by 7.4 percentage points, is 1.77 times its total decline of more than in May has further expanded 0.34 percentage points.

(D) show the effectiveness of policies, the domestic market growth more evident. From January to June, more than the size of the domestic electronic information industry output growth of 8.7%, of which 15% in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter growth rate increased by 10 percentage points. 3G investment in the telecommunications industry, driven by the impact of the first half of telecommunications equipment manufacturing industry increased 7.6% in domestic sales, including switching equipment industry increased 35.7%. Home appliances to the countryside and the trade in policies to stimulate consumption of home appliances market, 1 June home audio visual industry, domestic production rose 15.1%, of which 33.2% increase in the month in June, an increase of more than in April, May, respectively increased 17.6, 10.7 points. At present, the domestic components prices gradually picked up, but the machine prices continue to decline.

(E) software revenue declined largely, services trend to accelerate. From January to June, the software industry was 427.02 billion yuan revenue, an increase of 22.7% down year on year increase of 7.7 percentage points. One month in June increased 20.8%, compared with May down 1.6 percentage points. Obvious trend of software as a service, software, technical services increased by 33.4%, of which software outsourcing services revenue increased as much as 87.7%. From the key provinces and cities of view, growth of 31.7% in Jiangsu Province, Shanghai increased by 22.1%, 20.8% growth in Guangdong Province, Beijing increased 16.2%.

(Vi) investment in fixed assets slowed down, foreign investment declined. From January to May, the electronic information industry for more than 5 million yuan investment in fixed assets investment in the project is completed 167.57 billion yuan, up 17.3% year on year growth fell 7.5 percentage points. From the industry perspective, home audio visual sector investment fell 31.1 percent, electronic components sector investment fell 7.8%, of which semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices decreased by 39.1% and 14.2%, 17.6% in optoelectronics industry growth; communications equipment and computer industries rose by 39.2 %, 19.1%. From the enterprise perspective, foreign invested enterprises to invest in growth to decline from the first quarter, decreased by 16.8% over the previous 5 months expanded 13.4 percent decline.

(Vii) to reverse the declining trend in the eastern region, central and western regions grew rapidly. In June, the eastern regional sales value increased by 1.6%, reversing the decline in the first 5 months of momentum. Among them, Shanghai grew by 7%, reversing a May decline ( 8.8%) of the momentum; Jiangsu growth of 12.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points and up; Shandong growth of 19.4%, an increase of 3.2 percent expansion the previous month; Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian were down 3% 25%. In June, central and western regional sales value rose 24.2%, 18.2%.

The future situation and the main products development forecast

From an international point of view, the export situation are still not optimistic; from home, the domestic market is gradually warmed up again; with some leading indicators of view, the next industrial development is not optimistic.

From an international point of view, the export situation is still not optimistic. According to IDC and other international markets advisory body to investigate the first quarter, worldwide mobile phone shipments down 15%, color TV shipments dropped 6 percent, the computer unit shipments declined 7%, IC revenues declined 30% annual IT market is expected to decline up more than 3%, mobile phone, color TV, computers, integrated circuits, etc. The main products shipments were down 5% 20%. Since the end of 2008, the EU introduced in the color TV sets, set top boxes, external power supply and other six areas of eco design directive issued a proposed energy efficiency equivalent to the domestic level, the stringent requirements of China's exports of electronic products to create new barriers to trade.

At home, the domestic market is gradually warmed up again. Countries to expand domestic demand and promoting economic development policy effects continue to appear, the State Council officially released this year, third generation mobile communications license of the year is expected to more than 280 billion yuan investment in the communications industry, especially in the second quarter, markedly accelerated the process after the network construction, will boost communication equipment industry. Home appliances to the countryside policy, continuous improvement, implementation of products and geographic scope, increasingly stimulate the growth of consumption in rural household appliances. Triple play faster, telecom operators throughout the year the number of customized mobile Internet will be more than one million notebook units to the computer industry to bring new opportunities. However, the current policy of expanding domestic demand can not be completely as the promotion of long term market mechanisms, but also industrial core of the foundation is weak, key technologies and components controlled by others, low level redundant construction, and other deep seated problems will remain in a long time constraints industrial development, the macro changes in the environment are also is the impact of industry, traditional advantages, requiring co ordination to take measures to maintain a stable industrial structure adjustment and development, expanding domestic demand and stable to promote industrial exports, and many a balanced and healthy development.

With some leading indicators, the next industrial development is still not optimistic. First, imports continued to decline, 1 June of electronic information products imports fell 27.3%, in particular, electronic components, electronic components, electronic materials and other basic industries decreased by 40.1%, 21.8%, 33.7%, will affect the exports of the next machine. Second, home audio visual, electronics and other industries invest in decline, especially in integrated circuits, semiconductor discrete devices, printed circuit boards and other basic industries investment decreased by 39.1%, 14.2%, 14.4%, will affect the industry for sustained development. Third, the market has yet to resume in June of electronic information hundred orders for nearly half of the companies are still negative growth, Zhongguancun electronics market sentiment index in May fell more than 5%. Taken together, the first half of the electronic information industry downward trend likely to continue into the third quarter, but the decline will be somewhat narrowed, predicted that the annual revenue growth rate of the manufacturing sector 10% of the scheduled beginning of the year will fall to about 5% of electronic information products Overall exports will continue to be a negative growth in the software industry revenue growth remained at around 20%.



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