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Summary

What is "prudent macroeconomic management" Currently most of the countries that reflect the consensus of the "Basel Ⅲ", the core capital adequacy ratio by further increases, additional retention buffer and counter-cyclical capital cushion of capital and other indicators in order to reduce the leverage banks expand credit and maintain the stable operation of banks

Full Content

What is "prudent macroeconomic management"? Currently most of the countries that reflect the consensus of the "Basel Ⅲ", the core capital adequacy ratio by further increases, additional retention buffer and counter-cyclical capital cushion of capital and other indicators in order to reduce the leverage banks expand credit and maintain the stable operation of banks. New U.S. Congress passed the "Dodd - Frank Act", also designed to prevent systemic risk, consumer and investor protection, executive compensation restrictions improved regulatory system and other broad elements. However, the s
ystemic risk prevention in the core area, whether it is "Volcker rule", or derivatives, regulatory reform, the credit risk of securitized products retention requirements and to raise bank capital standards, and if one by one to digest, but also through the kinds of measures to prevent the credit expansion and banking risks. So generally speaking, recent national reforms are essentially settled in the "micro-regulation", settled in the micro-finance business "Leverage" limit, in order to address issues such as pro-cyclical.

Is this financial crisis from the United States the biggest lesson to be learned? This relates to the financial crisis in the United States to determine what the root causes. In this regard, nowadays the world is still controversial, and different stakeholders may never be united in the same point of view. Since the end of 2008, the author repeatedly stressed that one of the causes of poor supervision of the crisis, but not the main reason. And has raised several times, if Japan, Germany, China lack of supervision, can stir up this "once" the world crisis? Obviously impossible. Then why? It was added because of the global economic imbalances. In my opinion, it was only economic phenomenon, is the result of national policies.

Study the fundamental reason is that the U.S. government misjudged (or use) this round of globalization, the situation, long-term implementation of low interest rates to stimulate credit expansion. Other cheap labor, resources and other export-oriented countries, in the enjoyment of the benefits of globalization in the objective unconsciously propelled the U.S. wrong policy implementation. The United States has been able to implement the wrong policy, objective, and the deep foundation system, a dollar-led international monetary system. That crisis and many of the world financial crisis as the essence of monetary phenomenon. So the lesson only to seize the lack of supervision, not far from the world to avoid future similar crises.

Therefore, the West has so far on the theoretical framework of macro-prudential regulation is not complete, not comprehensive. As long as the world against the U.S. dollar and other major international currency issue do not form certain constraints (which is no small task), there will be some people of insight sigh as the West: Once again a crisis is inevitable! Because the current systemic risk appears not a single country risk, but under the existing international monetary system, global risks.

Moreover, the United States has only raised the issue of systemic risk, specifically how to identify, prevent, the new bill passed, it is not clear. Nobel laureate in economics Michael Spence said: "the regulation on the identification and containment of systemic risks is futile. Because we lack complete dynamic model of risk, and the moment in a complex global financial system The changes, therefore, aware of the risk or not, or full of mistakes. "

The face of the situation, developing countries, non-major reserve currency countries, especially China's financial strategy is being developed, the attitude should be taken only:

First, the basic endorsed the post-crisis institutional framework for global financial governance;

Second, can not meet the regulatory levels of governance, but rather should take a more active stance, called for improving the international monetary system and to participate in a series of actions to seek power mechanism for exchange rate stability among currencies;

Third, recognize that the current "prudent macroeconomic management" framework is not comprehensive, if a country are weak and can only look out for themselves, deal with foreign economic policy as much as possible and continue to strive to build against external shocks "firewall."

Must recognize that the current system of global financial governance framework is authoritative, but not necessarily comprehensive, it is necessary for their own country.

21pbn

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