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Four Experts Outlook 2011: Don't Worry About China's Economic Growth This Year By Lanbo Jiang

  in Business | Published 2012-03-06 15:35:41 | 109 Reads | Unrated

Summary

2011 macroeconomic continued yet fast development Structure adjustment effect how

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2011 macroeconomic continued yet fast development? Structure adjustment effect how? House prices is going up is reduced? These topics become recent expert discussions hotspot.

The state information center chief economic normal sword flat, the world economy is expected to 2011 will not appear a recession, but positive growth is very weak. He worry 2011 domestic investment surge, affect the economy structure adjustment.

He said, now every country are talking about new industry, some countries have even made dozen industries. But so far, the global economic entity ar
e not significant in promoting science and technology, did not produce new growth point. He thinks that future greater may be the world economy will not appear a recession, but positive growth is very weak is slow, fatigue recovery. Governments make various policy measures to maintain the mend and, this policy means future sequela is very big.
FanJianPing says, don't worry about 2011 domestic economic growth, just worry that structure. Domestic currently is demand and investment ShuangWang. 2011 is "1025" start in the country at present to heavy industry investment passion flesh, must the investment of checks on new projects, now important position of the investment structure will affect future 20 years of industrial structure.

Fiscal policy should also be "the pine" for a period of time.

The ministry of finance financial science research institute jia kang said, fiscal policy and monetary policy collocation is now a loose a tight, financial aspects should also be loose for a time, but should not loose a long time.

Jia kang said, turn shantytowns, guarantee room construction, new medical education funds, reinforcement, increasing the dilapidated reservoir... These projects are need to increase the fiscal expenditure. Therefore, in other respects significantly increase the fiscal expenditure of the space is not large.

He thinks, the positive fiscal policy at a certain time or will fade out, faded out of a period of time after it announced fiscal policy transformation. From experience, this process is expected to see in 2011 after 3 years period.

Jia kang said, no, HuiTouJian jashar royalty reform Suggestions from xinjiang expand to the Midwest, breed coverage from crude oil, natural gas, and expand to coal and other varieties. Once covered coal, Chinese economy operation of backward productivity economic levers effect will be greatly increased, to promote saving energy and emission.

He also advised, pay attention to with the deepening of the reform of the resource tax to rationalize our many years not straighten out the coal prices.

Fiscal policy will be timely tends to be stable.

The Chinese academy of social sciences, said CaiMaoSuo deputy director GaoPeiYong 2011 implement active fiscal policy, may actually be or has been the tendency for robust, even in the second half, likely from steady gradually tends to squeeze.

He said, interpretation of fiscal policy substantial contents about three levels. The first level is in the red. See deficit, can't look at a deficit to see if, but relative to the previous number is the deficit increase or decrease. 2009 deficit is rmb95 million yuan, by 2010, and 105 billion yuan is 2011 is 900 billion yuan, 2011 is in decline deficit size, this is a signal.

The second level is reducing taxes. People of tax calls for more intense, and especially looking forward in individual income tax somewhat on action. But individual income tax revenue accounts for only 7% of all. In addition, other categories of taxes has increased, including intends to set environmental protection tax, etc.

Third level is spending. When deficit plate after spending determined plate is actually a deal. It can do is structural adjustment, generally require investment to people's livelihood tilt.
Avoid pent-up demand this year concentrated outbreak.

Housing and rural construction, deputy director of the policy research center, said WangJueLin from 2010 statistic analysis, China's real estate market kept fast growth, 1 - November investment in real estate development year-on-year growth of yesterday, Housing prices rise slowed, though in 2009, high increase in November year-on-year growth of 7.7%, Commercial housing sales also at a higher level, 2010 month sales volume is 75 million square meters, 2007-2009 three years sales 6440 million square meters; Land policy after adjustment, price moderate.

He thinks, 2011 our real estate market basic would like to maintain the 2010 development trend, the control policy won't relax, may according to the market appears in the case of some sort of targeted adjustment, the key still is a comprehensive implementation of the "kingdom 30" requirements. Commercial housing sales will be better than 2010, house prices won't have big ups and downs.

"The next question is why can't adjust prices down?" WangJueLin think, our country house price instability is caused by many factors, both real estate market itself foster enough and mismanagement problem, also has the investment is too centralized, consumption is too centralized and urban development is not balanced the question, therefore solve the problem still have to start from various aspects. A from supply aspects, although now said increased land, but markets on real sales houses and not too much, 2 want from requirements aspects, the social capital, the bank funds, common people money for equilibrium configuration and reasonable guiding, Three is standardize market order, strengthen the market management, establishing a fair competition and consumption environment, The fourth is some of the city's restrictive purchase consumption policy don't relax, don't worry about the market is shrinking, now rigid enough to support the real estate market demand.

He said, now worry is not the real estate market down, but they are afraid of rigid consumption concentrated outbreak. Because the rigid demand, depressive year if it out, house prices will be out of control, regulation policy will fail, maintain stable development of real estate market will meet more difficult.

21pbn

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