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Irish Economic Downturn Triggered Fears of Sovereign Debt in Europe By Paul Hu

  in Business Management | Published 2011-12-05 00:22:37 | 129 Reads | Unrated

Summary

Ireland economy shrank in the second quarter to enable the Government to cut the deficit in 2014 to achieve the target GDP 3% more difficult, while the Irish lead to the outside world without external assistance in case of concerns about solvency, this negative influence also spread to the whole of Europe and other regions

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Ireland economy shrank in the second quarter to enable the Government to cut the deficit in 2014 to achieve the target GDP 3% more difficult, while the Irish lead to the outside world without external assistance in case of concerns about solvency, this negative influence also spread to the whole of Europe and other regions.

Irish Central Statistics Office released data show that the second quarter of the country's GDP shrunk by 1.2%, slightly lower than the 1.5% decline over the same period the level of Greece.

Irish and German 10-year bond yield differential in t
he GDP data release before expanding to 4.27% from 4.32% to a record high. Yield spread is a measurement of the Irish way of bond investment risks.

Bloxham Stockbrokers chief economist Alan McQuaid said: "The disappointing at the same time will give the international market pressure difference between bond yields, as investors wonder whether the Irish can be created to meet the budget requirements of the rate of growth."

However, in Ireland and the Ministry of Finance data released after the bond sale, with credit default swaps (CDS) measuring the cost of insuring sovereign debt of Ireland slipped to a record high of 23 Kusakabe under 500 points. 5-year sovereign CDS narrowed to 490 basis points immediately.

Ireland's economic performance in the first quarter as if to get out of long recession, as growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to 2.2%. Economists had predicted a modest second quarter growth will be achieved.

But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the Irish economy will contract by 0.5% in 2010. IMF also predicted the Irish economy in 2011 and 2012 will grow by 2.3% and 2.5%, 3.3% lower than the Irish government and 4.5% of the predicted value.

That the second quarter of economic contraction, IMF forecasts more realistic than the Irish government, but also led to the planned deficit reduction on the Irish ability to doubt.

Growth rate means a lower tax revenue will be lower than the government expected, while unemployment benefits and other items of expenditure will be higher.

Budget savings for 2011 will exceed the planned implementation of the EUR 3.0 billion announced, and now the pressure on the Irish Government will, it will be officially announced on December 7.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan9 the week of May 20, said in an interview, is the Government's 2011 GDP growth forecast of 3.25% re-examined, while waiting for the next few months, the result of economic and financial data.

Irish Central Bank President Patrick Honohan suggested that the 20 "clear on the budget to make some adjustments" in order to achieve the government's budget deficit target.

The case of gross national product will have slightly better. In the first quarter after a 1.2% decline in the second quarter declined by only 0.3% of GNP.

GNP decline was mainly due to reduced government spending, export growth was rapid decline while imports have increased, while consumer spending declined by 0.1%.

However, there is a positive side: growth in investment spending in the first quarter compared to 13.9%, for 2007 the largest increase since the fourth quarter.

21pbn

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